Is the crisis everything?

Russians spent more money in 2017 than they expected. This is evidenced by data from a study prepared by the holding "Romir".
Is the crisis everything? Russians, half a year, against, expenses, purchases, purchases, consumption, large, last, you can, plans, purchases

In December, sociologists asked the Russians what large expenses they had made over the past six months and what were planned for the next six months. According to the results of the survey, during 2017, Russians did not show significant savings on large purchases. For the most part, the variations in the various response options did not exceed or were close to the size of the statistical error.
The only exception was the purchase of household appliances and electronics. If in April last year, every fifth respondent curled about such acquisitions, and this was a record figure for all the years of observation, by the end of the year the proportion of such answers, having halved, returned to the usual figures, the study says.
So, over the past six months, slightly, but increased the proportion who bought clothes and shoes - from 27% to 30%. It is not excluded that the need for expensive purchases of this category of goods is associated with the onset of the autumn-winter season.
The share of Russians who spent on medical services remained almost unchanged - 15%.Also, only a percentage, but in a big way, the number of those who paid tourist trips increased - 11%. For half a year, the share of Russians who spent substantial funds on entertainment and sports (6%), payment for educational services (8%), buying smartphones (9%), furniture (7%), car repairs (6%) remained unchanged or almost unchanged .
For half a year, the number of Russians who bought home appliances and electronics has fallen by half, from 21% to 11%. Also, the repair boom, recorded at the beginning of last year, has also subsided. By the end of the year, instead of 15%, only 9% of Russians said they were spending on repairs, which is also closer to their usual indicators.
The share of cars bought in the past six months (4%), apartments (2%) and jewelery (1%) decreased by half. More than a third (36%) of respondents said they had not made any major purchases in the past six months. This figure has increased in six months by 5%.
At the same time, plans for large spending announced six months ago diverged from reality in the direction of increasing costs for most of the items. In particular, instead of the fifth part of the Russians, who planned spending on clothes and shoes, they actually made 31%.15% were spent on medical expenses instead of 11% who planned them.
Plans for spending on entertainment (4% versus 6%), education (5% versus 8%), buying smartphones (5% versus 9%), auto repair (4% versus 6%) were "overfulfilled". Experts say that this may be due to unforeseen expenses both due to car breakdowns, and due to wear and tear or the loss of a mobile phone. The increase in education spending is probably due to the start of a new school year in the fall.
The announced plans and actually made purchases coincided with such items as purchasing a car (4%), buying home appliances and electronics (11%) and jewelry (1%). Less planned were Russians spending on rest (14% vs. 11%), repair of apartments and houses (10% vs. 9%), buying furniture (9% vs. 7%), buying apartments (4% vs. 2%). It is possible that it was unfulfilled plans for the purchase of housing could not ensure the implementation of plans for its repairs and the purchase of furniture, add in "Romir".
If we talk about plans for major purchases over the next six months, then 42% of Russians are not going to make major purchases in the near future, although half a year ago 38% said so.In general, this indicator is within the usual framework - it was only higher in 2015.
“Thus, it can be said that during the whole of last year Russians did not show significant savings on large purchases. Compared with the declared plans for large purchases at the beginning of the year, by the end of the year, expenses for many items were exceeded. only for the purchase of apartments, which resulted in a reduction in spending on repairs and furniture purchase. In the next six months, there were no statements about plans for substantial savings. That is, Russians are gradually returning to normal, pre-crisis style of consumption, including the issue of major purchases, "- the authors conclude the study.
The survey involved 1,500 people over the age of 18 living in cities and rural areas in all federal districts of the country.
The results of the study are evaluated by Ph.D. in Economics, Associate Professor of the Department of Economics and Management of Vologda State University, Anna Shcherbakova: "In my opinion, the trends identified in the study cannot clearly indicate the transition to the pre-crisis consumption model, since the comparison of indicators over half a year is not quite correct.<...> The expenses of the Russians were higher than planned (only by 2%), since not all objectively predicted their income for the future. Usually, by the end of the year, there is an increase in incomes of public sector employees. Also, in connection with the New Year holidays, there was an increase in spending on clothing and entertainment (most likely due to the rejection of the rest). "
Head of the Department of World and Regional Economics, Economic Theory of Perm State University, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor Tatyana Mirolyubova notes two points that should be considered when conducting such research and analyzing their results: should take into account inflation. Although in general the average inflation in the country, as we were told, is not so big, but nevertheless, for certain groups of goods price increases have occurred in various measures e. <...>
Secondly, in 2017, the economy really adapted to the macroeconomic shocks that occurred in the last few years, and more or less began to adapt to the new realities. <...> Accordingly, to some extent, nominal wages began to grow, and after them real wages began to grow. "
Ksenia Beginina, a graduate student at Ulyanovsk State University, draws attention to the fact that spending patterns are different for different types of costs: significant, so most buyers were able to purchase planned after the New Year purchases.
It is difficult to judge that we are switching to a pre-crisis consumption model, since consumption of non-investment goods has increased. <...>
Therefore, in general, we can say that the spending of Russians has increased, but it is mainly spending on everyday consumption: clothing, education, etc. Also in the presented article we do not see the criteria for estimating these costs, which can be concluded that this type of consumption takes up most of the costs of buyers. Therefore, I believe that it is impossible to argue about the consumption of the pre-crisis level, since the cost structure with the pre-crisis one is different. "
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The full version of the material with detailed comments of experts can be read here.
Agenda, trends, opinions, exclusive. Informally on the Telegram-channel "Davydov.Indeks".

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