Is the Communist Party losing ground?

With high probability the mayor of Novosibirsk Anatoly Lokot will not go to the elections of the governor. Most likely, the Communist Party will not have strong candidates in other regions.
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Novosibirsk Mayor Anatoly Lokot (Communist Party of the Russian Federation) and Acting Governor of the Region Andrei Travnikov (United Russia) will make a joint statement on cooperation and mutual support of each other today. This is reported by RBC sources. In particular, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation will support Travnikov in the election of the governor, and United Russia will support Lokot in the election of the mayor next year.
In addition, politicians will announce cooperation in the implementation of projects in the region, including the construction of the metro. It is noted that they will work "in conjunction and dialogue."
As reported by Davydov.Indeks, on June 6 it became known that Anatoly Lokot, who had previously announced his participation in the election of the governor of the region, could give up his political ambitions. The configuration was discussed in which the Communist Party does not nominate Lokot in gubernatorial elections, but at the same time it receives guarantees that the direct elections of the mayor will not be canceled in the regional capital, and Lokot will not be prevented from reelecting for a new term.The powers of the mayor of Novosibirsk expire in 2019.
“Kommersant” recalls that in 2014, Anatoly Lokot already showed the ability to compromise. Then, having won the spring in the election of the head of the city, the vice-mayor of United Russia Vladimir Znatkov, in the fall he did not go to the election of the governor against the interim governor Vladimir Gorodetsky.
At the same time, the interlocutor close to the mayor of Novosibirsk assures that the candidate from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation will not be definitely in the gubernatorial elections, but at the same time the variant with the “agreement”, that is, the refusal from the nomination of the mayor in exchange for the post given to someone from his circle, is excluded. .
How exactly the mayor of Novosibirsk will explain his refusal is unclear, since the election campaign has actually begun. Back in mid-May, billboards with the image of Lokot began to appear, as well as simple Novosibirsk people promoting the Strategy 2030 program, with which he planned to go to the polls. At the same time newspapers and booklets appeared, telling about the achievements of the mayor.
The party itself believes that there was a potential for a successful campaign in the Novosibirsk region. As an example, high results in the region are given by Communist Party candidate Pavel Grudinin in the presidential elections in Russia: with an average result of 11.77%, he received 16.39% in the region.We add that Anatoly Lokot himself was considered as a potential candidate, however, as they said in his entourage, he decided to focus on gubernatorial elections.
If Anatoly Lokot refuses to participate in the elections, the only successful case of participation of the candidate of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation in the gubernatorial elections will be the campaign of Sergei Levchenko in the Irkutsk region in 2015, when the Communist candidate defeated the current head of the region, United Russia member Sergei Yroshchenko.
However, in all likelihood, one should not expect a successful speech from the Communist Party in other regions of Russia. In the near future, the party will decide who will compete with the current heads of regions in the autumn elections, but so far there are no strong candidates on the lists.
Thus, in Moscow, the nomination of the head of Lukhovits, Vladimir Barsukov, who worked in the regional government under Sergei Shoigu, is being discussed, and in the capital the non-public Vadim Kumin will oppose the current mayor. “Kommersant” notes that his nomination will be discussed behind the scenes, as previously there were questions about his candidacy.
Dmitry Bureev (Khakassia), deputy of the Montenegrin City Council, shares his opinion on the position of the Communist Party on the eve of the gubernatorial elections: "In March, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation thought it found resources to update in the person of candidate Grudinin. His election result inspired many regions. This was a risk factor. <.. .>
For the whole country, for all regions, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation in the current format has about ten status persons who can conduct regional campaigns. This is very small for creating a uniform background. But on the other hand, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation in many regions easily passes the "municipal filter" at the expense of the head and deputies of local self-government. This is a very valuable resource in gubernatorial campaigns.
As for the Novosibirsk region, Anatoly Lokot is already inscribed in the system of power, albeit under the red flag of the party. But there is a reality that requires the mayor of Novosibirsk to comply with the rules of the game of the federal center. What is happening now. <...>
As for the election of the governor of the Novosibirsk region, here the deputy of the State Duma Vera Ganzia could really become the party candidate of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. "
Deputy of the State Council of the Chuvash Republic,the founder of the Moscow school of political technologies Grigory Danilov, on the contrary, believes that the party is still able to show a strong game: “Of course, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation will put up strong competitors in the upcoming gubernatorial campaign.
Communists can make a serious competition in those regions where the protest mood of the population is strong. This is possible with the consolidation around the candidate of the Communist Party of the greater part of the protest forces in the region. Such examples already exist: Irkutsk Region, the city of Novosibirsk.
In Moscow and the Moscow region, the Communists have their own position. <...> The Communist Party of the Russian Federation may have its own tactical and strategic interests in these key regions for the country. And talking about the "weakness" of candidates being nominated is, in my opinion, inappropriate. "
Well, something like this.
The full version of the material with detailed comments of experts can be read here.
Agenda, trends, opinions, exclusive. Informally on the Telegram-channel "Davydov.Indeks".

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